🔬 Expected UEFA Coefficient Country Rank Model
Before the start of the 2020 European football season I created an model to simulate the Expected UEFA Coefficient Country Rank for the up-coming season with the primary objective to see what the chance of the Netherlands were to move up the rankings.
The simulation (n=25,000) for these expected rankings used FiveThirtyEight’s SPI match forecasts for both Champions League and Europa League combined these the latest UEFA Coefficients.
These simulations give a clear distribution of the potentially available European spots for each league a couple years in advance. Because of this an important use case for these simulations can be in the probabilistic forecasting of potential future revenue streams from prize money, TV revenue etc. for individual teams and/or leagues from European football.
Below is a twitter thread with some more details about the model.
With the European season kicking off tomorrow I decided to spend the past weekend to build a model to compute every countries' Expected UEFA Coefficient ranking at end of this season 1/n pic.twitter.com/7HkG20gemU
— Joris Bekkers (@unravelsports) October 19, 2020